Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Ellsbury untouchable?


Red Sox beat reporter Ian Browne answers fans' questions!




Q) Would the Red Sox really think about dealing Jacoby Ellsbury? Why would you want to trade talent like his to another team?
-- Vestal, N.Y.

Trading Ellsbury was easily the most frequent topic this week in the e-mails I got. And from what I can tell, Red Sox fans are almost universally against trading Ellsbury. By no means do I think Boston is looking to trade him. I know that the Tigers asked for Ellsbury during the Curtis Granderson sweepstakes, and the Red Sox declined.

However, I think anyone who objectively looks at this club realizes that perhaps the one thing it lacks right now is that monster bat for the middle of the order. If Ellsbury could be the key piece to get that bat, I think the front office would seriously explore it. The Red Sox have Mike Cameron to play center field for the next two years if need be, and they have some highly touted outfield prospects in their farm system -- Ryan Westmoreland, Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick -- who could be ready for key roles in a couple of years.

The Red Sox are in a win-win situation here. If they keep Ellsbury, they have a guy who should hit between .280-.300, score 90-100 runs and steal 60-75 bases in a given season. If they decide to trade him, it likely means they have found a franchise-caliber bat on the trade market.

Q) In the past few years, the addition of a slider to Jonathon Papelbon's repertoire has been widely noted. However, no one seems to talk about the disappearance of his splitter. While this has not made him in anyway a bad pitcher, it has detracted from his dominance on the mound. Can we expect him to bring back the splitter that played a key role in the Red Sox's 2007 title run?
-- Eli G., Chicago

You make an outstanding point. I was thinking the very same thing, particularly the day of that unforeseen meltdown in Game 3 of the American League Division Series against the Angels. I'm wondering if Papelbon's work on the slider last year took away his feel of the splitter. Perhaps he worked less on the split last Spring Training, assuming he would get it back on command, and it never happened.

It was somewhat alarming that virtually every pitch Papelbon threw in that ninth inning against the Angels was a fastball. At any rate, I'm sure he will be asked this type of thing in Spring Training. I'm sure it has been a long winter for Papelbon, who is one of the fiercest competitors around. I'm thinking that 2010 can't start soon enough for him.

Q) To see Jason Bay go to the Mets for $66 million over four years was disappointing. Didn't the Red Sox offer Bay something in the ballpark of $60-65 million? I don't really see general manager Theo Epstein's logic in not matching that offer.
-- Ben J., Bedford, Mass.

Not really. The Mets' offer to Bay is five years, assuming he gets the requisite plate appearances to make the 2014 option kick in. That makes it $80 million over five years -- not $66 million over four. It was clear Boston was never going to offer Bay a fifth year -- be it a guarantee or an option -- and that is why he is moving on to New York.

In these situations, the Red Sox always set their value with the player and live with it. Two years ago, they weren't going to give Mike Lowell four years. The Phillies did offer Lowell that four-year deal, but he took the three to stay in Boston. Bay did what he thought was best for himself and his family, and Epstein did what he felt was best for the Red Sox. It's nothing more or less than the business of baseball.

Q) Now that Bay is officially gone, I'm starting to feel a little discouraged about the Sox's chances against the Yanks. On paper, our rotation is a little better, but their lineup just totally destroys ours. How can we compete?
-- Jake A., Fitchburg, Mass.

Keep in mind that you don't truly know the final constitution of these two teams until July 31, the non-waiver Trade Deadline. Epstein certainly put the Red Sox in position to beat the Yankees last summer, when he acquired Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner and Alex Gonzalez. Unfortunately for the Sox, they were ousted in the ALDS.

Epstein could still add another important piece or two to this team, either this offseason or in July. Over the past seven years, Boston has established itself as a highly competitive team, one that is always one of the top contenders to go deep into October. I do agree with you that this team seems short a bat right now, but that could change with one move. Obviously, the pitching depth is there to make a trade for a bat.

Q) It seems that everyone has forgotten about the addition Boof Bonser. What's his role looking like for the 2010 Red Sox. Long relief?
-- Bryan T., Bristol, Conn.

The beauty of Bonser is that he can provide depth in all areas of the pitching staff. At this point, he probably projects as a long/middle man. He could be a spot starter or even work in a setup capacity if and when the need arises. The Red Sox are quietly optimistic he will make a return to health and be an important member of their 2010 team.

Q) With Lowell staying with the Red Sox for now, has the club considered switching Lowell to first and Kevin Youkilis to third? Lowell would not need to be quite so mobile, and his bat could stay in the lineup.
-- Name withheld, Bangor, Maine

Manager Terry Francona was on record earlier this offseason as saying that hypothetical situation didn't make a whole lot of sense because Lowell has played third base his whole life. I think the Red Sox will monitor Lowell's mobility during Spring Training, and perhaps he will be moving around better this year than he was in 2009 after more time to recover from the hip surgery.

Q) Do you see Tim Wakefield in Boston after 2010?
-- Marcos C., Haverhill, Mass.

The Red Sox tore up Wakefield's option this offseason and extended the knuckleballer for two years. It sounds like Wakefield will play those two years and probably retire after that, perhaps as Boston's all-time wins leader.

Q) Who will be the Red Sox's backup infielder be in 2010? Will we see Nick Green get a contract offer, or will Jed Lowrie take over? Will the Sox sign someone else?
-- Dan O., Hamilton, N.J.

Lowrie will probably hold down that role, assuming he is healthy. He can play short, third and second, and he also has a switch-hitting bat. In many ways, he is a perfect fit for that role. The Sox also signed Tug Hulett, a 26-year-old with some Major League experience. I think Green, a free agent, will end up with another team.

Q) How is Jerry Remy doing? Will he be back next year? His insight into the game and analysis is excellent.
-- Harding R., Guilford, Conn.

It sounds like Remy is doing well and will be back to a full slate in 2010. It was strange not having him around every day last year. He is a fixture around that team and hopefully will be for many more years.

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