The first time may be the best time, but it doesn't always guarantee election into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. The announcement of this year's class is slated for 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday in New York, which fans can watch live on an MLB Network simulcast on MLB.com.
On the 2010 ballot, second baseman Roberto Alomar and shortstop Barry Larkin are eligible for the first time. Each are 12-time All-Stars. Each dominated their positions during their eras.
Both are the most likely of the 13 first-timers to have their names appear on 75 percent of ballots distributed to eligible members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. If they do, Alomar and Larkin will be inducted on July 25 in Cooperstown, N.Y., along with manager Whitey Herzog and umpire Doug Harvey, who were elected in December by a Veterans Committee.
Overall, there are 26 players on the 2010 ballot. Since the first class was inducted in 1936, only 44 of the 108 players elected by the BBWAA were on the ballot for the first time.
"I'm not nervous, I'm excited," a confident Alomar told MLB.com recently when reached at home in Tampa, Fla., by phone. "I'm looking forward to it. I think it's going to be a big moment for all Puerto Ricans, especially my family. We're all expecting me to get elected."
Cito Gaston, who managed Alomar on two World Series-winning Blue Jays teams in 1992-93, said first ballot or not, there's no doubt about the 10-time Gold Glove second baseman, who batted .300 with 2,724 hits during a 17-year career for seven teams. Ryne Sandberg, the last second baseman elected by the BBWAA (in his third shot at it in 2005), batted .285 and had 2,386 hits in 16 seasons, all with the Cubs.
"He was like my son -- a great player who played with a lot of confidence," Gaston told MLB.com about Alomar. "If we're talking about Hall of Famers, to me he's a certain Hall of Famer."
Larkin played his entire 19-year career with the Reds, and he seems to have a better than even chance to get in. Larkin batted .295 and had 2,340 hits. Comparatively on offense, Ozzie Smith, the last pure shortstop elected (on the first ballot in 2002), batted .267 with 2,460 hits in 19 seasons for the Padres and Cardinals. Smith got in so quickly because of his defensive ability.
Cal Ripken Jr., who was elected along with Tony Gwynn on the first ballot three years ago, was also an All-Star shortstop, but finished his career at third base.
"I got more recognized as an offensive threat and multidynamic player by hitting home runs and for average and stealing bases while playing good defense," Larkin told MLB.com in 2007 after his election to the Reds Hall of Fame. "I see myself as a trailblazer. It's expected now that if you play shortstop in the big leagues, you have to do well in both sides of the game."
Among the 13 returnees with the best likelihood of being elected are outfielder Andre Dawson and right-handed pitching ace Bert Blyleven, who missed the cut this past January with 67 percent and 62.7 percent of the vote, respectively. Blyleven, who won 287 games and recorded 3,701 strikeouts (fifth highest all-time) for five big league teams, is in his 13th year on the ballot. Dawson, who had 438 homers and 1,591 RBIs for four teams, is in his ninth.
A player has to garner at least 5 percent of the vote to be carried over from year to year. He has 15 years of eligibility on the BBWAA ballot, beginning five years after he retires. BBWAA members with at least 10 consecutive years of membership are eligible to vote.
"I've talked to a lot of Hall of Famers and they've echoed the same sentiments," Dawson told MLB.com in a recent interview from his Miami-area home. "They say, 'You've just got to be patient. It's eventually going to happen.'"
Of all the previous BBWAA candidates to receive at least 60 percent of the vote, only Dodgers first baseman Gil Hodges has not been subsequently elected to the Hall of Fame by either the BBWAA or a Veterans Committee. Of the 21 players who had previously registered between 70-74.9 percent, every one of them ultimately have been elected.
In 2009, leadoff great Rickey Henderson and former Red Sox slugger Jim Rice reached the 75 percent threshold to gain entrance. Henderson was on the ballot for the first time and Rice made it in his 15th and last chance on the BBWAA ballot. To illustrate the point, Rice fell 16 votes short in '08 with 72.2 percent of the vote.
"If you look at some of the people in the Hall of Fame, my numbers are compatible," Rice said last year after he was finally elected. "Why it took so long, I don't know. The only thing I can say is that I'm glad it's over with."
Asked if he learned anything by the long wait, Rice added: "Be patient and wait until the last out."
Writers had the month of December to vote. Envelopes will be opened and tallied on Tuesday night, and the new class is scheduled to be announced the next day. A news conference is slated for noon in New York on Thursday to introduce any new members.
Being on the ballot for the first times has its advantages, but it's no sure thing. Barely 40 percent of the 108 players elected by the BBWAA made it the first time around.
The first thing you need to know about first-ballot electees is that Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, Carlton Fisk, Whitey Ford and Sandberg are among the great players who didn't make it. They were all elected later on: Berra, Ford and Fisk in their second attempts, Sandberg on his third and DiMaggio on his fourth.
The second is that from 1937-61, not one player was elected on the first ballot. In '36, Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson constituted the first class to be so honored. In 1962, Jackie Robinson was the next player elected on the first ballot.
Robinson, who is arguably the most influential player of the 20th century because he broke the Major League color barrier on April 15, 1947, to embark on an electrifying 10-year career with the Brooklyn Dodgers, garnered only 77.5 percent of the vote.
In the just concluded decade, 10 of the 15 players elected by the BBWAA were on the ballot for the first time: Kirby Puckett and Dave Winfield (2001), Smith ('02), Eddie Murray ('03), Dennis Eckersley and Paul Molitor ('04), Wade Boggs ('05), Gwynn and Ripken ('07) and Henderson last year.
Gwynn said that the process was nerve-racking and he was glad he made it along with Ripken the first time around.
Ripken garnered 98.53 percent of the vote, the most for a position player. Gwynn's percentage of 97.6 percent ranks directly behind Cobb, George Brett and Hank Aaron, pretty good company.
"These percentages started to concern me a bit," Gwynn said. "I feel guilty enough as it is being able to get in, while other guys can't. I was hoping to be in the low 90s and I could go about my business. I didn't want to be close to unanimous. I'm glad it worked out the way it did."
Five players far beyond their first-ballot appearance were also elected during the previous decade: Gary Carter (2003 in his fifth year), Sandberg ('05 in his third), Bruce Sutter ('06 in his 13th year), Rich Gossage ('08 in his ninth year) and Rice last year.
Gossage theorized that the evolution of his position as a closer is probably the reason it took him so long to get in. In his day, Gossage was sometimes asked to pitch up to three innings to nail down a save. Today, the greats like Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman -- two sure future Hall of Famers -- are rarely required to record any more than three outs an appearance.
"I'm probably the only pitcher to see the evolution of the bullpen from the time I broke in to the way it is today," Gossage said. "That's the only point I've ever tried to make: please don't compare me to these modern-day relievers. It's apples and oranges. It's not the same game. That's the only thing I've tried to set the record straight on."
On Wednesday, the writers will set the record straight once again as the 2010 Hall of Fame class is revealed.
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